Smart bets for the 2019 MLB Season. I’m not a rich dude or a major gambler. But I do think that there were some smart bets to be had for the 2019 MLB win total under overs. I like to bet $100 as a unit, nothing that’s going to break the bank but enough to keep me interested:)
Win/Losses Team Totals
Now, the odds have changed since I made these bets back in late February.
- Yankees over 96.5
- Phillies over 84.5
Bet #1 : Phillies over 84.5
Back in February, Philly made it clear that they were going to spend “stupid money” to upgrade their team. So, at 84.5 wins in February and without having spent too much at that point (McCutchen ) , it looked like they were going to land some big FA’s (Harper or Keuchel). Now , after they landed Harper, their win total number has jumped to 88.5, and it still might be a smart bet because himl they still might add Keuchel; however, that’s less of a lock, IMHO, than back in Februray when you just had to read Bleacher Report to know that the Phillies were going to make additional major improvements.
Then there’s the Yankees! 
Bet #2 : Yankees over 96.5
Back in February, this seemed also like a no-brainer for the following reasons:
- They have improved since last year and, importantly, have great depth as well as chips to trade if necessary July.
- Rest of the Division is only worse
- Red Sox, IMHO, are less likely to do as historically well due to regression and a bullpen that has lost Joe Kelly and Kimbrel
- Baltimore and Blue Jays are even worse having traded major pieces away (Machado and others) and manipulating service time of their minor leaguers (Vladimir Guerrero Jr)
Now, at this point in time, the Yankees bet is less appealing because the winnings are now -136 . You can see it was -110 back in February. I guess I wasn’t the only person that saw why the Yankees were a good bet back in February.
Machado Home Runs
- I would like to bet under 33 homeruns for a guy who has some uggly splits and has moved to much less friendly ballpark., but I can’t find a legal sports book yet that offers it.
I am simply explaining my thinking on why some bets which are no longer even currently available were good bets. I’ll revisit this post at the end of the season